Energy Shock Expected to Hit Prices Harder Than the Economy

Headlines surrounding the Middle East have dominated investor attention since late February. While uncertainty remains elevated, diplomatic negotiations have supported equities, even as fixed income and commodity markets continue to reflect potential risks. Recent economic data suggest the U.S. economy muddles on, though supply chain disruptions, higher shipping costs, and elevated energy prices are current headwinds. In our view, however, these pressures pose a greater risk to inflation than to economic growth. Below, we outline the implications for businesses and consumers.