Will Oil Prices Return to Pre-War Levels? It Depends on China’s Economic Growth

One of the key questions for investment professionals is whether oil prices will return to pre-war levels once the Middle East crisis is resolved. Among a variety of factors, one such factor is China demand. The plunge in crude imports caught our attention last month and it’s worth updating the charts for this edition. What do we know about China’s economy? China’s June trade data offered another reminder that the country’s growth story remains uneven beneath the surface. Crude oil imports fell sharply, dropping to their lowest level in nearly a decade as geopolitical disruptions in the Persian Gulf collided with softer domestic demand. The decline suggests refiners remain cautious about inventory accumulation, particularly given uncertainty surrounding shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for roughly half of China’s crude imports. While markets continue searching for signs that Beijing may step in to rebuild strategic stockpiles, the latest figures point to a demand backdrop that remains sluggish despite ongoing policy support measures.