This Week’s Blog Is Written By Scott D. Heins, CFP®, IAG Chief Investment Officer
November 19, 2025

Smack dab between Thanksgiving and Christmas lies Wednesday, December 10.

It is probably not a date that sticks out on your calendar. You likely are not hosting or attending a holiday party in the middle of the week. It sure looks like just another Hump Day.

Yet, this particular Wednesday is creating a significant amount of debate in the financial markets at the moment.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) plans to meet on December 10. There are two possible outcomes from this meeting. Either they will choose to leave their target overnight interest rate where it is, or they will reduce it by .25%.

Up until the October 29 post-meeting FOMC press conference, bond traders thought it was a foregone conclusion that the committee would cut their target interest rate by .25% on December 10. That all changed when Chairman Powell rhetorically blindsided them with this comment:

“In the Committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December. A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion—far from it. Policy is not on a preset course.”

In general, the Federal Reserve members try to manage market expectations through their inter-meeting speeches so as not to surprise the markets. After all, one of their primary objectives is the smooth operation of the financial system.

But what if the committee members themselves are so divided that the outcome is unknown?

We will learn more about committee divisions today when the FOMC releases its meeting minutes from October 29. The release of meeting minutes is typically a nonevent, but today it could move markets.

As of this writing on Tuesday morning, bond traders are literally flipping a coin on the December 10 decision. Half think persistent inflation reports will convince the FOMC to stand pat. Half think deteriorating employment reports will convince the FOMC to reduce its target rate.

There will be plenty of delayed economic reports released before December 10 now that the federal government is back to work. These reports will likely add weight to one side of the coin and traders will adjust market prices accordingly.

However, for the time being we are in the unusual position of FOMC indecision which can lead to above average daily market volatility until the coin is flipped.

As long-term investors, we know that financial success is not a coin flip. It is the cumulative results of a lifetime of rational decisions designed to work toward long-term goals. We just happen to live in a coin-flipping world.

Quote of the week: Jonathan Swift: “A wise man should have money in his head, but not in his heart.”

Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through IAG Wealth Partners, LLC, (IAG) a registered investment advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

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Any opinions are those of IAG and not necessarily those of LPL Financial. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

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