This Week’s Blog Is Written By Scott D. Heins, CFP®, IAG Chief Investment Officer
April 1, 2026

Comeback

With two minutes left in the first half, the University of Connecticut men’s basketball team was down 44-25 to the top seeded Duke Blue Devils.

The in-game odds at that precise moment gave them a mere 1.6% chance of coming back to win the game. The good news for them is that they closed their 19-point deficit to only 15 points by halftime, more than doubling their odds of winning to 3.6%.

Statistically, the Huskies were underperforming the Blue Devils in almost every category – with the only glimmer of hope being that they had fewer turnovers.

At halftime the Huskies’ headlines were horrible, the commentators dismissive of their effort, and the Huskies’ fans bemoaning their almost inevitable fate as underperforming second seed losers.

But the Huskies’ players did not read the headlines, listen to the commentators, or accept their fate. Instead, they focused on playing the second half possession-by-possession. With 10 minutes left in the game, they had whittled their 15-point halftime deficit to 9 points and boosted their winning odds to 9.6%.

You likely already know how the game ended. The Huskies won after intercepting a Duke pass in the final seconds and making a 35-foot 3-point shot with only .2 seconds left in the game – their only lead since they led 2-0 just 37 seconds after tipoff.

To say this comeback was unlikely is an astounding understatement. Most top seeded teams do not let their opponents back in the game once they have them down by 19 points. It is a rarity of rarities.

But not all comebacks are this rare.

At times, the financial markets appear down and out. Bad news compounds quickly in traders’ minds, driving prices lower and lower. Sometimes this happens quite quickly, while other times it is a much slower process of “falling behind.”

Regardless of the time it takes to tumble, people have a natural tendency to anchor their portfolio value at its all-time highest value and hold a strong opinion that it should always remain near (or preferably above) that value. The further their portfolio value deviates downwardly from their expectations, the more people tend to act like Huskies’ fans at half-time – deflated, disappointed, and defeated.

Unlike most people, long-term investors understand that there is no clock counting down the seconds until the game is over. They understand that money needed in the short-term should not be invested in potentially volatile markets with all of their ups and downs.

This approach to investing stretches the game clock out for long-term investing. Instead of having 40 minutes of regulation before the score is likely locked in forever, long-term investors likely have somewhere around eight years – or 4,207,680 minutes. Despite the anxiety created by turnovers, missed shots, and bad plays during market downturns, knowing there is plenty of time left to stage a comeback could encourage the patience required to endure such scoring droughts.

While the past is a very poor predictor of the future, our humble observation is that the financial markets have fought their way back from every “deficit” they have faced thus far. The only variable is how long it takes.

Everyone is surprised when a team comes back from a seemingly overwhelming deficit. Let one of our caring advisors help you or someone you care about minimize the surprise going forward.

Quote of the week: Carl Richards: “We spend a lot of time designing a rational, long-term investing plan. We do this presumably when we are thinking clearly about our goals and incorporating all the historical evidence about risk and reward. Then, when things get crazy, we scrap that rational plan and tell ourselves there is another way. We make a change that in hindsight turns out to be a bad idea. Then we repeat that process every few years. It would be comical if it weren’t so painful. Avoiding this kind of dysfunctional behavior is the crux of investing. The biggest risk investors face is getting scared out of their plans at exactly the wrong time.”

Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through IAG Wealth Partners, LLC, (IAG) a registered investment advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Any opinions are those of IAG and not necessarily those of LPL Financial. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Investing involves risk including loss of principle.

ART: 1079175
Photo Credit: Markus Spiske