This Week’s Blog Is Written By Scott D. Heins, CFP®, IAG Chief Investment Officer
October 29, 2025

What is it worth?

We are entering the season of crashes.

Not in the financial markets. November and December tend to be some of the stronger months of the year historically – though one never knows how each year will go.

No, we are entering the time of year when collision centers see an uptick in consumer demand due to changing circumstances.

The first predictable uptick will occur on Monday, November 3. This is the first business day after we fall back from Daylight Savings Time. The delightfully light evening commute on Friday, October 31, will plummet to complete darkness on Monday. Throw in the discombobulating effect of altered sleep patterns, and we find a statistically significant increase in car crashes right after this change.

The next uptick is less predictable, but is already ramping up. The number of deer carcasses along my commute has already started to increase, but this is only the beginning. There are hundreds of thousands of disoriented deer making poorer and poorer road-crossing decisions.

The corn fields which provided cover for them are gradually being harvested and their hormones are leading them to be more active wanderers. Throw in more darkness each and every day, and we find a statistically significant increase in car crashes as deer and drivers adapt to change.

The final uptick will be when the first accumulating snow of the season arrives. A few flurries don’t matter when the pavement is still warm, but once persistently freezing temperatures arrive millions of beautiful snowflakes will turn the streets into slip-and-slides.

Some drivers suffer from snow amnesia. They always seem to forget that stopping in snow takes significantly longer than stopping in rain or dry pavement. Throw in some packed ice, and we find a statistically significant increase in car crashes as people fail to adapt to changing circumstances.

All three of these triple threats would be less impactful if people simply accepted reality and adapted their behavior to their circumstances. That is incredibly easy to say, but so much harder to do.

The same is true for your financial life. Adapting to a job loss, a health scare, or a temporary market correction is not easy. Plenty of people who face these challenges feel like they have crashed. However, having a long-term plan in place before these challenges occur can provide the confidence needed to adapt to changing circumstances.

Please drive extra carefully as we enter the season of crashes. And if someone you care about should be better prepared, we are here to help them put their long-term plan in place before challenges appear.
Quote of the week: Morgan Housel: “Every past market crash looks like an opportunity, but every future market crash looks like a risk.”

Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through IAG Wealth Partners, LLC, (IAG) a registered investment advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Any opinions are those of IAG and not necessarily those of LPL Financial. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

ART: 817715-1

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