Earnings Preview: Double-Digit Streak Likely to Continue

Low Teens Looks Like a Low Bar

Regular readers of our earnings commentaries know how this usually goes. Companies guide earnings estimates low enough so they can beat them. If the economy doesn’t take an unexpected turn, history tells us S&P 500 companies will be able to grow earnings at least 3% faster than estimates, though past performance does not guarantee future results. In recent years, the amount of upside has typically been 6% or more. Not only did the U.S. economy not take a sudden turn south last quarter, but it’s been doing quite well. Third quarter GDP grew more than 4% annualized, and more solid growth is anticipated in Q4 (though probably not quite as strong). Remember that’s in real terms (inflation adjusted), so add 3% or so of inflation to get a rough approximation of the attractive revenue opportunity. Corporate America delivered more than 8% revenue growth in Q3 2025 and in our view, should be able to do that again in Q4, more than enough to extend the double-digit earnings growth streak—now at four quarters.