This Week’s Blog Is Written By Scott D. Heins, CFP®, IAG Chief Investment Officer
November 12, 2025

If everything goes as planned, today the U.S. House of Representatives will be voting on legislation that will reopen the federal government for the first time since September 30.

Regardless of where you fall on the political spectrum, we can all agree that the financial markets have literally not cared a lick about the intense drama that has consumed the political class with literally made-for-TV drama for the last 40+ days and nights.

Instead of buying into the hype, traders have calmly ignored all of the angst-ridden hand-wringing, political grandstanding, and carefully cultivated discord.

They maintained steadfast confidence that at some point something would happen and the federal government would reopen. They have seen this movie several times before. And despite different plot twists from previous versions, the ending is always the same – the government always reopens eventually.

But will those calm and steady traders maintain their composure after the government reopens?

A government reopening will bring with it a messy flood of late government reports on employment, inflation, and overall economic health. Traders usually absorb this information in a steady cadence with time to digest one report before the next one is released.

If this onslaught of “catch up” economic reports show troubling signs of crumbling employment, persistent inflation, or a cowering consumer, traders may adopt their patented sell-first-and-ask-questions-later attitude which creates unpopular market volatility.

As long-term investors, we can see the irony in this.

The same exact traders that remained calm because they knew how the political movie would end often act as if they have never in all their days seen the long-term market movie before. That is the difference between watching a movie and being in a movie. When you are personally part of the plot, you tend to obsess about the ever-changing twists and turns as if the ending is unknown.

We investors know that the markets have never failed to reach a new record high following bouts of trader angst. While we have zero confidence in the amount of time it will take to achieve that new high, we know how this movie eventually ends.

If you are ever given the choice of being a politician, a trader, or an investor, I humbly recommend you choose the latter unless you adore unnecessary drama. Long-term investors truly know how the movie will end.
Quote of the week: Benjamin Graham: “The investor’s chief problem – and his worst enemy – is likely to be himself. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.”

Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through IAG Wealth Partners, LLC, (IAG) a registered investment advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

Any opinions are those of IAG and not necessarily those of LPL Financial. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

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