TBD
Whenever I am struggling to come up with a weekly blog topic, I place a temporary title as a place holder until my thoughts come into focus and leak out of my fingers.
My temporary title is always “TBD” – To Be Determined.
Today, in a radical twist of literary laziness, I decided to leave that temporary title in place. As I think about everything going on in the world right now, I feel like the uncertainty of TBDs outweigh the confidence of HBDs (Has Been Determineds) by a wide margin.
As we are all overly aware, there is an election coming up on November 5. Most political analysts believe the results will be very close in the Presidential election as well as key U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives elections. But that is not the TBD that gives me pause.
The bigger TBD for me is how both the winning and losing sides react to the election results. I am hopeful that candidates win rather convincingly to minimize the potential chaos that election uncertainty creates. Extended court battles, public protests, and lost confidence in the election process all undercut the legitimacy of our representative form of government. Election results and responsive behaviors are TBD.
We are also at a pivotal moment in the Middle East. The death of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader recently killed by Israeli troops, could either provide an opportunity for significant progress in negotiating a peace agreement or deepen the Hamas-Israel conflict in Gaza. The challenge is finding a resolution where both parties can claim some level of success while minimizing their strategic failures. The path forward for both Hamas and Israel is TBD.
Most humans are naturally apprehensive about TBDs. Sure, there are the thrill seekers amongst us who thrive on diving into the unknown. But most of us strongly prefer a somewhat “predictable” future with fewer TBDs.
Our financial planning process is designed to help convert some of our clients’ TBD questions into “what could be” answers. The cumulative decisions we make on a daily basis gradually create our financial futures by converting our TBDs into HBDs. The key is to do this thoughtfully with long-term goals in mind while living in a reactionary ultra-short-term world that presents us with numerous potentially harmful decisions.
I wish we could provide clear answers to all of the TBDs in our clients’ lives. However, the best we can do with our limited prognosticative abilities is to help them reduce their uncertainty over time, build their future financial confidence, and help them make decisions that are consistent with the future they envision for their families.
Yes, the TBDs right now are numerous and potentially nerve-racking. There are likely even more of them than any of us realize. However, those with a long-term plan in this short-term world are more likely to experience positive HBDs.
If you have a plan, stay on track through the potential chaos that could be coming. If you need a plan, there is no time like the present to get started.
Quote of the week: Morgan Housel: “Every past market crash looks like an opportunity, but every future market crash looks like a risk.”