It seems like such a long time ago, but things did not look great in late March and early April.

The Brewers started their season with four consecutive losses and tariff talk caused the financial markets to tumble. Prospects were mutually glum.

The Brewers lost a couple of key players after finishing first in the National League Central Division the previous year, and they opted not to spend millions of dollars signing other pricey free agents. Their plan for a successful season relied on existing players, a couple of budget-friendly acquisitions, and some rising talent.

After setting record highs in February, traders became increasingly concerned about the impact of the new administration’s evolving trade policies. After a positive 2024, traders were hoping that lower taxes and fewer regulations would permit the market’s positive momentum to continue. Instead, they were coping with potential trade barriers, higher costs, and what appeared to be a budding bear market. Headlines were heavily tilted toward pessimism and plenty of people panicked.

Neither the Brewers nor the financial markets looked like winners.

Fast forward to Monday.

As of July 21, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers have the highest winning percentage in all of Major League Baseball. They have won 11 games in a row – with 6 of them being against the defending world champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Their pitching staff includes two All Stars, one of whom was in the minor leagues at the beginning of the season. They traded an unhappy starting pitcher for a minor league first baseman who contributed 12 runs in his first 7 games after replacing the starting first baseman. They are clicking as a team.

No one could have predicted this just three months ago.

As of July 21, 2025, the financial markets are once again setting record highs. While there has been very minimal progress in resolving the tariff threats, traders have apparently reassessed the risks they pose to company earnings and reached a different conclusion. Investors who had the wisdom and patience to ignore the hyperbolic headlines have been rewarded for sticking to their plan.

No one could have predicted this just three months ago.

What will the next three months bring? That is just as predictable as the last three months.

Having the best winning percentage in baseball is an achievement, but the odds of mean reversion are fairly high. It will be incredibly difficult to maintain the high level of performance required to maintain that winning percentage through the end of the baseball season. The World Series starts on October 24. The Brewers may or may not be playing at that time because their record over the next three months is completely unknown.

After a tremendous bounce up from April’s panic-induced lows, the financial markets are entering the time of year when they have a tendency to struggle. While past performance is a completely unreliable indicator of future results, the odds of some mean reversion over the next three months are elevated. Traders may or may not be enthused as events unfold over the next three months because future performance is completely unknown.

Please be sure to savor the events over the last three months, understand that other peoples’ pessimism may be your personal opportunity, and cheer for a strong finish to the season.

Quote of the week: Aaron Levie: “There is more upside in being an optimist that’s sometimes wrong than being a pessimist that’s always right.”

Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through IAG Wealth Partners, LLC, (IAG) a registered investment advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Any opinions are those of IAG and not necessarily those of LPL Financial. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Be sure to consult with your tax professional before making any tax-related decisions as each individual’s tax circumstances are unique.