Turning Point
We have arrived at the turning point.
The signs of spring are starting to outweigh the winter scene. Sandhill cranes and American robins — the early birds of spring — have arrived. There is now a faint glow in the eastern sky during my commute in the morning, and I walk outside after work into something called daylight.
We are at the point where if it snows again, it will likely stick around for a few days instead of months. And the start of the 2025 baseball season is just over one month away.
I happen to be a calendar-driven seasonality person. I know there are those that will disagree with me, but my seasons officially start on the first day of months. Therefore, this coming Saturday, March 1, is my personal first day of spring.
Some people choose to be more equinox-driven in their seasonality. I understand and respect that scientific approach. However, I find that adopting a calendar-driven seasonality approach provides significant attitudinal advantages – especially when it accelerates my mental transition toward warmer weather.
Turning points in the financial markets are neither calendar-based nor equinox-based. Market seasons are entirely driven by attitudes loosely justified by numbers. While there may be an occasional equivalent of a robin sighting by traders, the financial markets really move randomly depending on what millions of people around the world believe will happen in the future based on what they saw, read, or heard today.
There has been a distinct change in pattern in the financial markets since the beginning of 2025. The stock market record highs that seemed to come so effortlessly last year now require more work. They are far less frequent almost two months into 2025.
Over the last four weeks, analysts’ professional estimates of how much companies will earn over the next twelve months have plateaued after persistently rising since last September. It is starting to feel that perhaps we may be at the very beginning of a market turning point. Or maybe not.
I sincerely wish I could precisely and proactively identify turning points in the financial markets. I firmly believe I could be retired by now if I could only master that one skill.
Alas, successful market forecasting requires predicting human behavior based on innumerable variables spanning the entire globe without the predictable movements of the planets to serve as an initial guide.
The humble admission of one’s limitations is often the inception of true wisdom.
As much as I will enthusiastically embrace my personal scheduled seasonal turning point from winter to spring on Saturday, my professional obligation is to ensure our clients’ portfolios are aligned with their financial plans and persistently prepared for any unexpected turning points in the financial markets.
Quote of the week: Daniel Kahneman: “The core of the illusion is that we believe we understand the past, which implies that the future also should be knowable, but in fact we understand the past less than we believe we do.”
Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through IAG Wealth Partners, LLC, (IAG) a registered investment advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
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Past performance is not guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and can’t be invested in directly. The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of the predecessor index, the S&P 90.
Any opinions are those of IAG and not necessarily those of LPL Financial. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Investing involves risk including loss of principal.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
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