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XVI

Delaware, Wyoming, and New Mexico all approved the 16^th amendment to the Constitution on February 3, 1913, providing the three-quarters majority of states needed to ratify this proposed amendment to the Constitution:

“The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on income, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.”

Over the last 108 years Congress has used a fairly consistent definition of “income.” If an activity creates incoming cash flow for you, it is probably taxable (of course, with plenty of exceptions).

Expectations

Christmas is coming!

While Christmas will likely be different this year, the expectations of children still grow measurably as the number of opened days on the Advent calendar increase.

There is something about mystery that is fascinating.

Fall

Everywhere I look these days I find subtle reminders that that our season has once again changed to fall.

This coming Sunday we reach the end of Daylight Savings Time and fall back one hour. Enjoy the extra hour of sleep (or let the kids think you are letting them stay up late). While completely predictable, this change messes with my internal clock by making it really dark in the evening.

Concentration

Concentration was not my strength as a grade school student.

One day in second grade I packed up my bag and started walking home when the bell rang for first recess. I had just spent the previous who knows how long daydreaming instead of listening to Mrs. Sebald.

Blast From the Past – Back to the Future

With our weekly blog writer, Scott Heins on vacation, we thought we would bring you one of Scott’s original blogs. This one, Back to the Future was originally published October 21, 2015

Your alarm goes off tomorrow morning. You open your eyes and start your morning routines, but something feels different. Your first glance at the mirror reveals a person that looks 30 years older than you were the night before. Are you dreaming? Nope. Somehow the world moved 30 years forward overnight and today is October 21, 2045.

Lost in Data

Accurate information is an extremely valuable asset when making life-altering decisions.

Excessive or inaccurate information is a liability that leads to confusion instead of clear-headed decisions.

While I am neither an epidemiologist nor a professional statistician, it appears to me that we may be getting lost in excessive and potentially inaccurate data in making COVID-19 response decisions.

Understanding both current and historical decision-making often requires two sets of data. One data set documents the evidence on which decisions are made. It is always incomplete and full of information gaps. Decision-makers never have access to real-time accurate data.

Buy Buy

There are only two things on stock traders’ minds these days – buy and buy.

• The S&P 500 Index – a broad index including 500 large U.S. companies – has set record highs on 50% of trading days so far in 2020.
• Traders are now paying more for $1 of anticipated future corporate earnings than at any point in the last 5 years. (Source: JPMorgan)

By most measures, stock prices for large cap U.S. companies are richly valued.

However, just because traders have said buy-buy to higher stock prices does not mean a correction is imminent.

10% Chance

Only a 10% chance.

According to the National Weather Service, there was only a 10% chance that last weekend’s monster snowstorm which we heard about for days would provide us with a mere 2-3 inches of snow. By their analysis, there was a 90% chance we would get more than 3 inches. See their explanation on the graphic by clicking this link, then click on the picture

2020

Our first blog of 2020 is dedicated to helping you make 2020 a better year for you and your family.

We will forego all of the 20/20 allusions about vision and foresight, though they may prove irresistible throughout the year.

We will not remind you that the new year brought plenty of changes to retirement accounts. If you are interested in those, please see our previous blog on the SECURE Act.

We will not bore you with our market predictions for the year because, as usual, we do not know with certainty how 2020 will unfold. Only hindsight is 20/20.