Unearthing the Metals Melt-Up

The melt‑up in the metals market that defined 2025 has extended its strength into the early weeks of the new year, reinforcing the commodity sector’s position as one of the leading asset classes across global markets. To the surprise of most, gold outperformed the broader equity market for a third consecutive year, surging roughly 65% in 2025 and far exceeding the S&P 500’s gains. Silver delivered an even more extraordinary performance, posting its best year since 1979 with annual gains near 150% and reaching generational price highs. The rally, however, cannot be attributed solely to a weaker U.S. dollar or the resumption of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate‑cutting cycle in September. Policy dynamics ranging from robust central‑bank gold purchases to evolving trade and geopolitical strategies significantly influenced price action across the metals landscape. Together with structural supply shortages and rising industrial demand, these factors have created a powerful backdrop that continues to shape market volatility and performance. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we explore the drivers behind the strength in metals, the associated risks, and the outlook for the durability of the rally.