This Week’s Blog Is Written By Scott D. Heins, CFP®, IAG Chief Investment Officer
September 16, 2026
Wrong Again
Today is a great day to take a stroll down memory lane.
Harken back to the olden days of late 2025 when the market experts issued their prognostications about the coming year.
If there was one theme that ran throughout these visions of what will unfold in 2026, it was that inflation would continue to trend down and the new Federal Reserve chairman (whoever that may be) would most assuredly be more inclined to reduce the Federal Reserve’s target overnight interest rate than Chairman Jerome Powell.
The real contentious debate was over how many interest rate cuts we would see in 2026. The minimum bid was one, a vast majority predicted two or three, and there were a few envelope-pushers that foresaw four cuts.
As of today, the self-proclaimed economic prophets will likely be proven wrong yet again. (And I thoroughly understand the irony of my predicting what will happen at the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow as I write this on Tuesday morning. Please forgive me if my prediction is wrong.)
It turns out that collecting and thoroughly analyzing every scrimp of economic and market data about the recent past does not create a foolproof extrapolation into the future.
The reality is that the future will be full of unforeseen and unpredicted events that will shape our future world in ways the experts cannot even imagine today.
In 2026, the economy thus far has remained stronger than anticipated, the downward inflation trend has stalled or reversed, we are involved in an unforeseen military conflict, and consumers continue to spend despite projecting a dour mood.
But recurring failure does not stop the human spirit from yearning to decipher the future in the present. Over the next twelve months, experts are now predicting the Federal Reserve will raise its target overnight interest rate at least two more times (and maybe even three). They may or may not be wrong again.
Our approach to managing expectations about the future is wildly nonprognosticative. Yes, we pay attention to short-term market movements. However, we strongly believe that preparing for the unexpected before the future unfolds is one of the keys to long-term financial success.
We humbly acknowledge that we cannot consistently predict the future. Therefore, we fervently work to understand and manage our clients’ future risks and opportunities within the context of their unique short- and long-term financial goals.
We create an investment risk budget for each and every one of our clients because we have more control over investment risk than we do future investment returns. Knowing that the experts are inconsistently correct, we remain resolute in sticking to our clients’ strategic investment plan instead of putting our faith in the fallible financial prophets.
Today likely brings an interest rate plot twist that no one saw coming a mere nine months ago.
Are you confident you and your family are prepared for the next unpredicted events in your life? We are always here to help you identify your financial weaknesses and build your confidence in your future.
Quote of the week: John Kenneth Galbraith: “The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through IAG Wealth Partners, LLC, (IAG) a registered investment advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial. Jason Ganiere is solely an investment advisor representative of IAG Wealth Partners LLC, and not affiliated with LPL Financial.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Any opinions are those of IAG and not necessarily those of LPL Financial. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Investing involves risk including loss of principle.
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