On Friday the calendar will turn over to the final month of 2023.
Despite a very uneven showing so far this season, it is statistically pretty much guaranteed that the Green Bay Packers will win all five of their games in December and likely make the playoffs. Let the delightful celebrations begin!
From whence does this incredible confidence flow? Historical performance, of course.
Coach Matt LaFleur has a perfect record in December while coaching the Packers. He has won 15 games and lost 0. Clearly, he is a December genius.
One could conceivably argue that circumstances are slightly different this year as the team’s quarterback is a first-year starter instead of an experienced veteran.
But it may not be as different as you think. Here are Jordan Love’s and Aaron Rodgers’ statistics through their first 11 games:
- Passing yards – Jordan Love 2,599 yards, Aaron Rodgers 2, 599 yards
- Touchdowns – Jordan Love 19, Aaron Rodgers 17
- Interceptions – Jordan Love 10, Aaron Rodgers 9
- Completion percentage – Jordan Love 60.5%, Aaron Rodgers 63.5%
The historical statistics say they are virtually identical quarterbacks.
Thus, it is with complete confidence that – based on past performance – fans can start celebrating a delightful December five-game winning streak.
Traders can also take the misguided approach of assuming December will bring a delightful winning streak. You can understand traders’ optimism because December is statistically the month with the highest frequency of positive returns.
Since Matt LaFleur started as the Packers head coach in 2019, traders are 3-1 in December, with last year being the sole loss. The December prior to Matt LaFleur’s hiring was a legitimate disaster for traders with the market bottoming on Christmas Eve.
You see, past performance does not predict future results. A perfect 15-0 record does not guarantee 20-0. The best month of the year is sometimes the worst.
As much as we would like to think that December is full of automatic wins for the Packers and the stock market based on the weight of historical past performance, the outcome is truly unknown until the games are played and the trades are made.
Here is to a positive yet unpredictable finish to 2023!
Quote of the week: Clifford Asness: “Predicting the future is harder than misremembering the past.”